Stonehenge road scheme costs have ballooned 🎈

Our banner outside the Royal Courts of Justice got it wrong. The cost for 12km of road would not cost £2.5bn but at least £3bn at today’s rates. More probably a whole lot more.
£1.7bn? Who are they kidding?
The much vaunted “£1.7bn” cost for the Stonehenge road scheme is many years out of date.
When the scheme was first announced in 2014 the price tag was £1.1bn. By the time the A303 Stonehenge scheme was presented to the Examining Authority in 2019 the budget had ballooned by 65% to £1.7bn, excluding VAT, during a period of low inflation. Five years on, despite inflation hit Britain, National Highways, supported by Department for Transport, continues to misleadingly promote the “£1.7 bn” price tag in the press. [1]
Our freedom of information request in 2022 revealed a similar amount to the parliamentary answer received by Devizes MP, Danny Kruger last month. This was an estimate of £1.9bn based on starting construction in 2021, a figure that had been calculated in 2018, an amount that did not take inflation into account. When the annual maintenance costs were included it brought the total closer to £2.5bn, the figure used on our banner at our protest last December. [2] [3]
To estimate a more realistic cost in 2024 we need to know when the scheme might start. Now that the Development Consent Order (DCO) has been signed off there is nothing to stop National Highways starting various preliminary works such as archaeological investigations and action to protect species for a site of the highest archaeological and ecological value. These are to start in Spring 2024 and could take between 12 to 20 months. Thus, if the decision-making has not been found to be faulty by the courts, the Stonehenge project could start in earnest (i.e. the main works) in winter 2025, with an optimistic ‘open for traffic’ five years later i.e. 2030.
Using National Highways’ inflation rate for 2025/26, our best estimate is that this road will cost at the very least, £3bn for just 13km of road. Bearing in mind the engineering risks this is a conservative estimate, falling midway between National Highways’ upper and lower estimates. [2] [3]
Our estimate broadly reflects the National Audit Office’s assessment of the scheme’s business case undertaken in 2019. Based on their 2016 prices, the NAO quoted National Highways’ estimated bracket of £1.5bn to £2.4bn, and considered the likely cost to be £1.9 billion.
The Devizes MP is chasing the Department for Transport for the true, up to date, cost. Whilst waiting for a parliamentary answer, our best guess is ‘at least £3bn’, but we expect more duplicity and deflection from the Department for Transport. [4] [5]
When could the road project really be ready for traffic?
Given that the scheme does go ahead, our view is that 5 years is a substantial under estimate:
- All the evidence suggests that National Highways has understated the potential technical, archaeological and environmental effects of the proposed scheme.
- The engineering challenges through the unique, complex Stonehenge chalk landscape and ground water conditions are considerable. [6]
- The hazards encountered by the HS2 construction that pushed up costs and caused long delays, could be replicated at Stonehenge, but with the added dimension of a sensitive archaeological landscape. Remarkable discoveries at Stonehenge have almost become a common place. It’s a clear case of known unknowns in this World Heritage Site. [6] [7]
- National Highways has a track record for optimism bias. The experience of dualling the 3 mile stretch of the A303 between Sparkford and Ilchester (a relatively straight forward stretch in Somerset) confirms this. That scheme has been delayed by 12 months due to heavy rain and “unforeseen issues” related to protected species. Thus for the more complex Stonehenge scheme, the delays could run into years. [8]
Could this be Wiltshire’s HS2?
A frequently asked question is: “what are the chances of Wiltshire joining HS2 and Hinkley Point landmark examples of uncontrollable costs?” We have been warned by those with considerable experience in major construction that whatever the cost is today, it will end up costing twice as much, what ever the finish date, double it. £6bn? 10 years?
“The tunnel at Stonehenge is currently only just value for money by the Department’s own business case. Based on experience, project costs tend to grow rather than fall, at least in the early years. It will take a very special effort by the Department [for Transport] to protect public value up to completion.” Warning from the then head of the NAO, Amyas Morse, now Lord Morse, 20 May 2019.
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NOTES AND REFERENCES
1. Original estimates: When announced on 1st December 2014 the reported budget for the Stonehenge short tunnel varied between £1.1bn and £1.2bn: e.g. Salisbury Journal and ITV, The Guardian however reported David Cameron planned to spend £2bn on all three of the eight A303 corridor schemes. One of the three schemes has been withdrawn and the prospect for the remaining five look doomed.
2. Parliamentary Question 12 March 2024 to the Department for Transport – A303: Stonehenge by Danny Kruger MP (Devizes):
To ask the Secretary of State for Transport, if he will make an estimate of the (a) (i) previous, (ii) future and (iii) total costs for the construction of the A303 Stonehenge road scheme between Amesbury and Berwick Down and (b) annual maintenance costs over the next 60 years in present day values; and whether contractual penalties exist if the scheme is (A) cancelled and (B) subject to serious construction delays.
3. National Highways cost estimates (SA member, FOI, 2022):
The tables below show a £1.992bn capital cost (at 2021 rate including non-recoverable VAT) lus £453m operation maintenance and renewal costs (at 2019 rate). When both totals are brought into line with the 2021 rate, the total would have been around £2.5bn.
4. See para 14, page 8 “Improving the A303 between Amesbury and Berwick Down”, National Audit Office, May 2019
5. For a briefing on the method applied to calculate the scheme’s value for money, see The Mole Report: Stonehenge road scheme doesn’t add up.
6. See section 5 by Dr George Reeves, April 2022, Submission on Geological, Geotechnical and Hydrogeological Reports issued by National Highways (formerly Highways England) in response to the Secretary of State’s Statement of Matters for The Stonehenge Alliance (Reference No. 2001870)
7. Such as The Mystery of the Durrington Pits (University of St Andrew, 9 December 2021)| Blick Mead: Exploring the ‘first place’ in the Stonehenge landscape (Current Archaeology, 1 February 2017)
8. Gillingham News, 19 January 2024, “Protected species and bad weather delay major A303 upgrade by up to a year”
9. Open Access Government, 3 April 2024, Network Rail’s £2.8 billion climate crisis investment